Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings confirmed, in a report published on April 10, 2026, Egypt’s sovereign rating at B/B, with a stable outlook. It highlights that this assessment reflects a balance between the country’s growth prospects, ongoing economic reforms, and persistent external risks related to regional tensions.
Key supporting factors highlighted include the level of foreign exchange reserves, which stood at $52.8 billion in March 2026, as well as the net foreign assets of the banking sector, which reached a record of around $30 billion. Despite a depreciation of about 13% of the Egyptian pound since the start of the crisis, Egypt continues to implement a more flexible exchange rate regime.
According to S&P, the stable outlook reflects the continuity of the economic reform program supported by the International Monetary Fund. However, the agency warns that a slowdown or reversal of these reforms, especially regarding exchange rate flexibility, could lead to a downgrade of the sovereign rating and increase the cost of external financing.
The current account deficit is expected to widen to 4.8% of GDP in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, compared to 4.2% a year earlier. This evolution is due to pressures continuing to weigh on the country’s main sources of foreign currency, including expatriate transfers, tourism, and Suez Canal revenues. However, the latter increased by 21% year-on-year, reaching nearly $3 billion in the first eight months of the fiscal year, compared to $2.5 billion in the same period of the previous year.
The agency also notes that Egypt remains vulnerable as a net energy importer since 2023, especially in the face of disruptions in the supply of Israeli gas, which accounts for nearly 60% of its gas imports. In addition, fluctuations in global wheat and food prices continue to pose a significant risk to the Egyptian economy.
S&P also anticipates persistent volatility in portfolio investment flows. About $10 billion left the market within a month after the crisis broke out, compared to nearly $20 billion during the Russia-Ukraine war. At the same time, the country’s financing needs are expected to remain above 40% of GDP. Public debt, however, is expected to decline, dropping from 94% of GDP in 2023 to 89% in June 2026, before falling to 83% by 2029.
Finally, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are expected to continue supporting the Egyptian economy through investments and deposits estimated at around $18 billion with the Central Bank of Egypt, at least until the completion of the IMF program scheduled for December 2026.
