Kenya could lose up to $40 million per month in remittances from Gulf States due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the World Bank said in its latest economic report published in April.
According to the institution, these flows, essential for many African economies, are exposed to the fallout of the conflict, which is impacting the employment of migrant workers, especially in construction and services.
Data from March 2026 show one of the largest monthly drops in remittances to Kenya in recent years, with up to $40 million potentially at stake. A prolonged deterioration of the situation could further exacerbate the decline in transfers.
Beyond Kenya, several African countries remain heavily dependent on these flows, which can represent up to 20% of GDP in economies such as Comoros, Gambia, Lesotho, or Liberia.
Pressures on global energy markets
The escalation of tensions since late February has also disrupted global energy markets, particularly through incidents affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for oil trade. The price of Brent crude oil has thus risen from around $70 per barrel at the end of February to over $110 by the end of March, fueling inflationary pressures.
The World Bank estimates that the impact on African households remains limited for now, but warns that an increase in energy prices combined with a decrease in remittances could reduce the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households.
In this context, economic outlooks are deteriorating: about 60% of sub-Saharan African countries have seen their growth forecasts for 2026 revised downwards, including Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa.
The institution finally emphasizes that the response capacity of states remains constrained, with high levels of debt and limited budget margins, reducing their ability to cushion the shock.
