The World Bank has lowered its growth forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa, anticipating an expansion of 4.1% in 2026, down from the 4.4% expected in October, amidst rising energy costs and increased uncertainties related to the conflict between the United States and Iran.
According to a report released on Wednesday, April 9 by the Washington-based institution, growth is expected to remain at 4.1% in 2026, as in 2025, but the recovery is slowing down in a more challenging international context. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes, have led to an increase in fuel and fertilizer prices, weighing on importing economies.
The report also warns of a potential slowdown in investments from Gulf countries, which have become key players in sectors such as mining, renewable energies, and technologies. Additionally, a decrease in labor demand in the Middle East could affect remittances from African expatriate workers.
This shock comes at a time when budget margins are severely constrained. Debt servicing has almost doubled, from 9% of public revenues in 2017 to around 18% in 2025, and nearly half of the region’s countries are at high risk of debt distress or already in difficulty.
Pressures are particularly acute in vulnerable economies dependent on oil imports, including Kenya, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, and Burundi. Kenya could face significant inflationary shocks in unfavorable scenarios, while Ethiopia remains exposed through its expatriate workforce.
According to the World Bank, the outlook for West Africa remains uncertain, with data on agricultural inputs still incomplete. More broadly, the region remains vulnerable to external shocks, in a context of financial constraints and heavy dependence on energy imports.
