A takeover bid is above all the most appropriate way to save a listed asset (horse racing, bank, company) from depreciation. The OPA generally intervenes when the management, caught in a whirlwind of bad fortunes, fails to reconnect with profits and correct the value of action.
Those keen on technical analysis believe that whenever the market value is well below the potential mathematical value, there is a risk of raid. If, in addition to the downturn in the price, there is a balance sheet damaged by the accumulation of bad debts, unreduced dividends paid over several financial years, and a shareholding in equal shares, without any real leader, you attract all The possible buyers of the market in search of a possibility of future gains.
In short, in the case of Ecobank, which holds an epic board of directors on June 16 in Lomé, the theoretical conditions are met for a seizure of power. Caution, the symbolic value of the big Pan-African bank can provoke resistance. Russian Renaissance Capital tried a hostile takeover bid in 2007, which provoked a rise in shields and chords behind the curtain to force it to decline its shareholding that is now history. But at the time, the guardians of the temple kept watch. This is no longer the case today. The big figures have given way to new leaders confronted with the harsh reality of the market. The tact of Mandé Sidibé and Koffi Djondo is so lacking in the great flagship of African finance today in troubled waters.
At the end of the first quarter, the main aggregates of the bank were down, namely: - Net banking income down 15% to US $ 425 million (261 billion FCFA) - Equity down 28% to 1.8 billion US dollars (1,133 billion FCFA) -A pre-tax result down 28% to 75 million US $ (46 billion FCFA) - Net income, down 25%, was US $ 61 million (CFAF 37 billion) -A total balance sheet down 12% to 20.4 billion US dollars (12 542 billion FCFA)
This decline, due in part to the sharp depreciation of the African currencies against the dollar, comes after a difficult 2016 financial year. Having come to power only a year and a half ago, is Nigerian Ade Ayeyemi, more than ever fragile, holds the keys to the solution?
Citi's former head of sub-Saharan Africa is satisfied. A communication posture likely to reassure the market.
"Our first quarter performance was encouraging despite the current macroeconomic challenges. All of our businesses have made significant progress in implementing our strategy by continuing to focus on cost containment, rigorous credit risk approaches and process digitization to enhance the customer experience. "
Admittedly, first quarter sales of $ 425 million were up 3% in constant dollars. But as the 25% decrease in net income shows, the bank's commercial and operational performance was not sufficient to reverse the general trend.
On the assets of CEO Ayeyemi, operating expenses remained stable compared to 2016. Moreover, if the judicious decision to provide massive provision to facilitate the digestion of Ecobank Nigeria is a bet on the future, it remains No less a heavy challenge on the present, on liquidity and on the solvency ratio.
The rigorous management of credit risk, Ayeyemi's flagship theme, translates into a $ 400 million issue of convertible bonds, largely reserved for shareholders. Once again invited to sit down to table, the little unfortunate shareholders will have the springs to avoid a certain future dilution?