The foreign exchange reserves of the countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) recently experienced a decrease without impacting its external stability. This information is contained in a report from the Cameroonian Ministry of Finance (Minfi) focusing on the economic fallout of the Iran-Israel-US conflict. In this document released on April 20, 2026, the Minfi notes that “as of October 31, 2025, these reserves reached 6.203 billion CFA francs (approximately 11.12 billion USD). This is a decrease of 146 billion CFA francs (approximately 262 million USD) on an annual basis and 1.133 billion CFA francs (approximately 2.03 billion USD) compared to December 2024.”
The authors of the Minfi report indicate that “this decrease is mainly due to cumulative net negative transfers of 1.300 billion CFA francs (approximately 2.33 billion USD).” This decline is occurring in a context of persistent trade deficits, increased external debt repayments, and the past decrease in oil prices.
For 2026, the ministry anticipates “additional pressure.” Indeed, it announces difficulties for several countries in the sub-region facing significant external debt deadlines, which could lead to massive outflows of currencies and impact regional liquidity.
In this constrained context, the evolution of hydrocarbon prices appears as a potential mitigating factor. The increase in international prices linked to geopolitical tensions could support export revenues.
These arguments are based on the fact that “CEMAC remains a net exporter of oil and gas.” Hydrocarbons remain the primary source of foreign exchange. This could partially offset outflows related to debt servicing.
But this hope remains fragile. The report highlights “the risk of logistical disruptions.” Tensions in maritime transport and insurance could affect exported volumes and increase costs.
In addition to reserves, the ministry warns of “inflationary risk.” It points out that “the increase in crude oil prices, combined with transportation and insurance costs, could lead to an increase in fuel prices.” This is because CEMAC countries heavily depend on imports of refined petroleum products. An increase in fuel prices would quickly impact domestic prices and production costs.
This threat comes at a time when inflation has significantly decreased. After 5.6% in 2022 and 2023, then 4.1% in 2024, it dropped to 2.2% in 2025, with the support of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). For 2026, inflation is projected at 2.7%. However, a surge in fuel prices could slow down the disinflationary trend and spread across the entire economy.
