In a circular dated October 19, 2026, the Gabonese government acknowledged that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is still reviewing the conclusions of its public debt audit. This circular also indicates that “the figures may change” after this audit.
It is recalled that in June 2026, Gabon launched the audit after requesting a program from the IMF in March 2026. In September of the same year, the Ministry of Economy reduced the state’s commitments from nearly 11,700 to 9,524.6 billion CFA francs (from 20 to 16.3 billion USD approximately) as of December 31, 2025. This represents a decrease of 18.6%.
No repayment explains this decline. Checks, reclassifications, and the rebasing of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 13,822 billion CFA francs (nearly 24 billion USD) contributed to this. The debt ratio thus falls to 68.91%, below the 70% ceiling of the Economic Community of Central African States (CEMAC).
Two figures, two interpretations
The official figure does not have unanimous support. The World Bank, in its public finance review of September 29, 2026, estimates Gabon’s public debt in 2025 to be “over 80% of GDP.” However, it acknowledges that its data is provisional.
Fitch Ratings, which maintains Gabon at CCC-, projects a ratio of 80.6% in 2026 and 87.6% in 2027. Analysts are therefore calling for “a full publication of the audit report.”
The IMF has already reviewed the file. A mission led by Aliona Cebotari stayed in Libreville from September 14 to 25, 2026. They examined the audit, budget prospects, and the 2027 budget proposal.
The government aims for a staff-level agreement by the end of the year. However, it recognizes that this timeline remains uncertain. A new mission could follow the discussions at the Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
The markets have already made their bets
Investors welcomed the audit. Gabonese dollar-denominated bonds have a yield of around 19.5% in 2026, among the best in the emerging world. The audit has, for now, averted the threat of restructuring before any IMF support.
Gabon continues its borrowing program. The country raised nearly 340 billion CFA francs (about 580 million USD) on October 14, 2026, over eight years, increasing its international borrowings from 2026 to 877 billion CFA francs (about 1.5 billion USD). The 2027 budget proposal foresees over 1,100 billion CFA francs (almost 1.9 billion USD) of new borrowings on international markets.
Upon closer inspection, the financial burden is already weighing on Gabon’s budget. The government forecasts a 36.9% increase in financial expenses in 2027, to 667.3 billion CFA francs (about 1.14 billion USD), compared to 487.6 billion CFA francs (nearly 834 million USD) in 2026.
Upon analysis, an upward revision would shake the government’s narrative. On the Gabonese side, it is expected that such a scenario would also complicate negotiations and raise the cost of future issuances. Conversely, validation by the IMF should provide Libreville with a solid foundation for its program.
