The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again lowered its growth forecasts for Angola. In its report published in early September, the institution now expects a growth rate of 2.1% for the year 2025, down from 2.4% in its previous estimate, and 3% initially. This downward revision is due to the persistent weakness in oil production, a central pillar of the Angolan economy, and an unfavorable external environment marked by volatile oil prices.
Beyond growth, the IMF is particularly concerned about the evolution of Angola’s public debt. While the country currently maintains an “adequate” debt repayment capacity, the risks associated with its indebtedness have increased in recent months.
Two sources of concern are highlighted. On one hand, excessive domestic indebtedness that could expose the local banking sector to increased sovereign risk; on the other hand, short-term, costly external debt that could undermine investor confidence and increase the cost of future financing.
It is worth noting that in April, Angola was forced to pay an additional $200 million in guarantee to JPMorgan as part of a loan mechanism backed by government bonds. This deposit was recovered after a rebound in Angolan bond prices, but the episode highlighted the country’s financial vulnerability to market shocks.
In its recommendations, Reuters emphasizes that the IMF urges Angolan authorities to reduce their borrowing, streamline public spending, and adopt a more flexible exchange rate policy to strengthen the resilience of the national economy.
This assessment follows a post-financing mission conducted in May 2025 in Luanda, which confirmed tensions related to declining oil revenues, tightening financing conditions in international markets, and the complex management of bilateral debt, particularly with China.
