Encouraging macroeconomic performance in 2024 similar to that of 2022 and 2023
Strong growth in a context of inflation deceleration
Despite the security and socio-political crisis in some member states, the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the situation in the Middle East, economic activity within the Union continued its dynamism with a growth rate of 6.3% in 2024 compared to 5.2% in 2023. This strength is linked to the positive trend in activity in all sectors, especially primary and secondary, driven by a good agricultural season and the dynamism of extractive activities. The Union’s average annual inflation rate decelerated to 3.5% in 2024 from 3.7% in 2023, due to lower price pressures on food and energy products.
Improvement in the public finances of member states
Efforts in revenue mobilization have had positive effects on domestic resources. However, tensions remain high. Thus, the overall budget deficit represented 5.0% of GDP in 2024 compared to 6.6% in 2023. This deficit is the result of an increase in public revenues (+9.3%) greater than that of expenses (+1.9%). This resulted in a tax pressure rate of 14.3% after 14.1% in 2023. The debt ratio stood at 64.8% in 2024 compared to 63.8% in 2023, a slight increase of 1 percentage point.
Significant improvement in external accounts
The current account deficit decreased by 3.4 percentage points compared to 2023, to 5.9% of GDP, following a decrease in the deficit balance of goods. This reduction is the result of an increase in exports (+13.6%) coupled with a decrease in imports (-1.2%).
Monetary situation characterized by an increase in the pace of money supply growth
It stood at 8.9% at the end of December 2024 after the 3.5% increase recorded in 2023. This increase is driven by the consolidation of net external assets and domestic claims.
Perspectives for 2025 within the Union: consolidation of performance
Economic activity would continue its dynamism with a projected growth rate of 6.7% compared to 6.3% in 2024. This progress is supported in particular by the strength of extractive industries. The inflation rate could be around 3.0% in 2025, due to the expected increase in agricultural production for 2024/2025 and the continued decline in prices of imported food and energy products.
The overall budget deficit would represent 3.7% of GDP, in line with the strengthening of revenue mobilization (+14.2%) compared to the increase in expenses (+6.6%). The tax pressure rate would be 15.0%. Budget consolidation would be effective in five member states by December 31, 2025. The debt ratio would be 63.0% compared to 64.8% in 2024, below the 70% ceiling in six member states.
In terms of foreign trade, the current account deficit would amount to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 compared to 5.9% a year earlier, due to a favorable evolution of the balance of goods. Intra-UEMOA trade would represent just over 16.0% of the Union’s total trade.
The money supply would increase by 12.7%, driven by domestic claims (+10.5%) and the expected consolidation would amount to 2,623.4 billion in net external assets.
Strengthening the pillars of integration for a peaceful and prosperous community space
In order to take into account the aspirations of the populations in the integration process, the Union has adopted a UEMOA 2040 Prospective Vision which embodies the collective ambition of its eight member states to take a new step in their common history over the next twenty years.
Titled: “UEMOA, a sustainably integrated, peaceful and prosperous economic and monetary space, open to Africa, with a consolidated strategic position in the world”, this vision is based on five essential pillars:
– UEMOA, a secure space with strong institutions;
– UEMOA, a sustainable and prosperous economic, monetary, and financial space;
– UEMOA, a catalyst for the achievement of integration in West Africa;
– UEMOA, a space with a flourishing population;
– UEMOA, a Union consolidating its strategic position on regional and international stages.
To operationalize the vision and consolidate the achievements resulting from the implementation of the Priority Action Framework for the 2021-2025 period, CAP 2025, a Strategic Plan of the UEMOA Commission, called “IMPACT 2030”, has been developed. It aims primarily to improve the competitiveness of the Union’s economies and strengthen the pillars of regional integration.
This plan is built around 13 ecosystems selected based on their ability to stimulate the structural transformation of the economies of member states: import-substitution capacity, valorization of local raw materials, and synergies with other priority sectors.
All of these ecosystems can be grouped into three distinct families:
– the agro-industrial sector,
– the sector of light industries and extractives,
– value-added services.
IMPACT 2030 is structured around five axes:
– Development of production ecosystems;
– Development of economic infrastructure supporting competitiveness;
– Promotion of human development and citizenship;
– Strengthening the foundations of integration;
– Modernization of Institutional Governance.
Abdoulaye DIOP, President of the UEMOA Commission
