By Meissa Lo, Financial Expert, International Market Finance Consultant, Founder of the Millenium African Institute Nations and Democracy think tank, Member of the French Society of Financial Analysts (SFAF).
An unprecedented concentration of religious holidays between December of N-1 and July of N, what economic risks for households?
By observing economic cycles and future data, we can see a succession of holidays within a few months: a rare phenomenon, occurring almost every 33 years.
Between December of year N-1 and July of year N, Senegal will experience, repeatedly between 2026 and 2029 or beyond, an unprecedented concentration of major religious holidays. Over a period of only seven months, several major celebrations will follow one another: Maouloud (Gamou): birth of the Prophet Muhammad (often between November and January according to the lunar calendar), the Magal of Touba: great Mouride pilgrimage, Ramadan: sacred month of fasting, and the Eid al-Fitr: end of Ramadan feast, not to mention religious gatherings and ziarras in various religious cities, as well as the Tabaski (Eid al-Adha) feast.
This exceptional density of celebrations, all marked by significant expenses, is expected to create unprecedented economic and social tensions, in a context of high national and global inflation. Massive expenses will be concentrated in the first half of the coming years. The month of January has always been considered a cash flow tension month due to the fairly budget-heavy year-end celebrations, leading to a weakening of households in January and February. But from 2026, or even 2027, religious holidays will immediately follow the year-end celebrations, further exacerbating this cash flow tension in households and potentially causing socio-political tensions in underdeveloped states like Senegal.
Religious holidays are times of high consumption in Senegal: new clothes, food items, purchase of sheep, transportation to holy cities, religious donations, etc. They mobilize significant financial resources, often well beyond the real means of households. This phenomenon is visible in almost all West African countries, especially those where the Muslim religion is most predominant.
In normal times, these holidays are spread throughout the year, allowing households to gradually rebuild their savings. Between 2026 and 2032, the coincidence of these events over a semester will force families to spend in a rush, with little or no time to recover financially.
We are heading towards increased inflationary pressure. The explosive demand for specific products (sheep, sugar, oil, traditional clothing) will drive prices up.
Anticipating this demand, traders will engage in opportunistic inflation. The little savings that some Senegalese have will be depleted.
Almost all income and small savings will be mobilized in the first semester. Many families will lose their resilience to unforeseen events (illness, education, etc.), a phenomenon observed in 2020 or 2021 during COVID-19 or post-COVID with lockdowns and economic shutdowns.
Households will have no choice but to massively resort to informal credit. They may turn to rotating savings and credit associations or usurious loans to cope with festive expenses. This increases the risks of informal over-indebtedness, which is difficult to trace and regulate. Diaspora transfers will be under pressure; demand will intensify in this area.
Resources sent by the diaspora will have to be concentrated over a few months, putting pressure on expatriates’ ability to sustainably support their families.
It is important for our current leaders to pay attention and be sufficiently alert to this upcoming widespread financial stress.
Social frustration is inevitable: some households will be unable to keep up with the pace set by the social demands of the holidays.
Therefore, it is urgent to strengthen inflation monitoring, monitor prices, combat abusive speculation, and support households in diversifying their income.
The period 2026-2029 and beyond may pose a real budget challenge for Senegalese households due to the concentration of religious holidays in the first semester. If nothing is done to anticipate and support these dynamics, the risks of inflation, indebtedness, and social fracture could escalate, with lasting repercussions on the economy and social cohesion of the country. Therefore, any political tension should be avoided in order not to provide grounds for disruptions to the country’s stability, which is still under construction.
