In an interview with Financial Afrik on March 5, 2026, university professor and international expert Abderrahmane MEBTOUL discusses the impacts of tensions in the Middle East based on conservative assumptions.
What is the current state of energy in the Middle East and Africa?
The energy landscape in the Middle East and Africa is dominated by significant hydrocarbon reserves, giving these regions major strategic importance in the global energy balance. According to Oil & Gas Journal, Middle Eastern countries hold some of the largest oil reserves on the planet. Saudi Arabia leads with 267.19 billion barrels, followed by Iran (200 billion), Iraq (145.01 billion), the United Arab Emirates (113 billion), Kuwait (101.5 billion), and Qatar (25.24 billion). Modest reserves are also found in Oman (4.9 billion barrels), Egypt (3.3 billion), and Yemen (3 billion).
In Africa and the Maghreb, oil resources are also significant. Libya has approximately 48.36 billion barrels of reserves, followed by Nigeria (37 billion), Algeria (12.2 billion), Angola (7.78 billion), Sudan (5 billion), and Senegal with around 2.5 billion barrels. In terms of natural gas, the Middle East also plays a central role. Updated data shows that Iran holds the largest reserves with nearly 32,100 billion cubic meters, followed by Qatar (24,700 billion), Saudi Arabia (6,000 billion), the United Arab Emirates (5,900 billion), Iraq (3,500 billion), Egypt (2,200 billion), and Oman (700 billion cubic meters).
In Africa, the main gas reserves are concentrated in Nigeria (5,500 billion cubic meters), Mozambique (4,500 billion), Algeria (2,450 billion), and Libya (1,500 billion). In addition to these volumes, the cross-border Grand Tortue Ahmeyim gas project, jointly developed by Senegal and Mauritania, is estimated to have resources of around 530 billion cubic meters.
Furthermore, certain areas in the Levant Basin are attracting increasing interest. According to the Foundation for Scientific Research, extractable reserves of around 35 billion cubic meters of gas are located off the coast of Gaza. More broadly, the entire Levant Basin is estimated to hold nearly 2,000 billion cubic meters of natural gas, with a comparable volume potentially still buried beneath the continental shelf. This energy wealth partly contributes to geopolitical tensions over the control of these resources.
Lastly, current tensions in the Middle East highlight the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, largely controlled by Iran. This maritime passage is one of the main energy chokepoints in the world: approximately 20 to 21 million barrels of crude oil, condensates, and petroleum products pass through it daily, representing over 20% of global hydrocarbon consumption and nearly a third of oil transported by sea. These flows give this area a major geopolitical dimension in global energy security.
The conflict between the USA, Israel, and Iran has been ongoing for almost a week. What are the determinants of the course of hydrocarbons?
The price of oil is influenced by about ten major determinants, combining geopolitical, economic, and energy factors. The first factor is geostrategic. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, as well as disruptions in the Red Sea, weigh on the markets. The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 to 25% of global hydrocarbons transit, remains a critical point. However, this effect is temporary: the barrel could temporarily exceed $100 if tensions worsen, but over the course of 2026, an average around $65 to $70 seems more likely.
The second factor is global economic growth. Energy demand is directly linked to the activity of major economies. For 2026, global growth is expected to remain moderate, between 2.6% and 3.3%, supported by technological investments and the rise of artificial intelligence, despite an anticipated slowdown in the United States and China.
The third factor is the action of OPEC+, which adjusts global supply through its production decisions. The fourth factor is the role of the United States, now one of the main global producers thanks to shale oil and gas.
The fifth factor is Russia. A gradual normalization of its exports in case of easing the conflict with Ukraine could help ease prices.
The sixth factor is the emergence of new producers, particularly in Africa, whose oil and gas reserves are expected to play an increasing role in the global supply by 2030.
The seventh factor is new energy prospects in the Arctic, where around 13% of global oil reserves and 30% of gas reserves are estimated to be concentrated.
The eighth factor is the security of energy maritime routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, which concentrate a crucial part of global trade and whose tensions increase transport costs.
The ninth factor is the level of strategic stocks, particularly in the United States and China, as well as monetary fluctuations, especially the euro and the dollar, with the backdrop of some BRICS countries’ desire to diversify the currencies used for energy transactions.
Finally, the tenth factor, crucial in the long term, is energy transition. The development of renewables, hydrogen, and energy efficiency policies will gradually transform the global energy model and have a lasting impact on hydrocarbon prices.
What are the consequences for African economies in general?
Firstly, the United States maintains a military presence in Africa mainly concentrated around the Horn of Africa and the Sahel for counter-terrorism and intelligence missions. The central pivot is Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, their only permanent base on the continent. Most facilities located outside Djibouti are considered “cooperative security sites.”
In this context, Africa risks being indirectly involved in proxy conflicts, with possible repercussions on security and foreign investments.
The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran also causes significant volatility in energy markets, with an increase in Brent crude prices that threatens to fuel global inflation and weigh on African importing economies through higher fuel prices and import bills.
There is not just one Africa, but multiple Africas. However, in general, the impacts could be more painful for a majority of countries on the continent, especially in the Sahel. Several effects can be anticipated:
– An increase in transportation and electricity costs: the rise in oil prices directly affects transportation costs and thermal electricity production.
– Imported inflation: higher fuel prices lead to widespread inflationary pressure on African economies.
– Increased pressure on currencies: net oil-importing African countries, especially in West and East Africa, see their import bills increase, widening trade deficits and putting pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
What role can African oil and gas producers play in stabilizing the global market?
The main oil and gas-producing countries in Africa are concentrated in North Africa and the Gulf of Guinea, including Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Senegal-Mauritania (Grand Tortue Ahmeyim project site), Cameroon, and small reserves in Niger. These countries hold the majority of reserves, with Libya (39%) and Nigeria (30%) dominating crude oil. The main gas-producing countries in Africa, holding the majority of reserves and production, are Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, and Libya, which together account for nearly 78% of African reserves. Mozambique, Senegal, Mauritania, and Tanzania are emerging as new key players with significant discoveries. In the context of tensions in the Middle East, African oil and gas producers (Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Senegal, Mozambique) can stabilize the global market by increasing their exports to Europe and Asia. They offer a safe alternative, away from the Strait of Hormuz, to offset some supply disruptions.
What is the economic cost to be borne by the USA, Israel, and Iran?
For the USA: High cost of military intervention and risk of internal economic slowdown due to inflation. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated the long-term cost of the war at $2,400 billion, with around $1,900 billion spent in Iraq, which amounts to $6,300 per American citizen. For the current case, the amount is much higher, and it’s only the beginning. The US offensive against Iran is already showing a staggering bill. According to Forbes, with the deployment of forces, aircraft losses, and strikes, the cost for American taxpayers has already exceeded $1 billion and could reach nearly $100 billion in military expenses if the conflict continues. The war in Ukraine cost the US “at least” $150 billion in military and economic aid. The American president seemed to base a large part of his strategy for the midterm elections in November on his ability to lower the cost of living, using the only lever he indirectly controls: the price of oil. However, he has chosen a path that could lead to a spectacular increase in oil prices, risking reigniting inflation, which had burdened his predecessor, Joe Biden, allowing him to return to power in 2024.
For Israel: Major impact on economic activity, with business closures and the bankruptcy of key infrastructure like the port of Eilat. According to the Ministry of Finance, the cost of the war with Iran for the Israeli economy could reach 9.4 billion shekels per week if all national restrictions are maintained, completely paralyzing the economy. Additionally, the Israeli government estimates that its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah could end up costing over $60 billion, severely affecting the Israeli economy.
For Iran: With a population of over 90 million people and a vast territory four times the size of France, Iran faces a contrast of wealth that does not correspond to its actual GDP, with social disparities and a relatively poor population. This conflict, along with sanctions affecting the entire country, is currently causing infrastructure destruction, with strikes targeting military, economic, and energy sites, drastically limiting oil exports. Trade paralysis and a high inflation rate of over 50% are increasing social tensions, exacerbated by a drastic devaluation of the currency. If the conflict continues, Iran risks financial asphyxiation, with its already low foreign exchange reserves estimated at $39 billion in June 2025 affecting the entire economy heavily dependent on foreign currency resources for over 80% of hydrocarbons. Hence the strategy to escalate the conflict with strikes on Gulf monarchies, closing the Strait of Hormuz threatening the global economy, hoping for pressure on the USA to stop the conflict.
What are the scenarios for the outcome of the Iran-Israel-USA conflict?
Limited escalation scenario: targeted strikes without ground occupation, allowing for a quick stabilization of markets after a period of high tension. This limited escalation scenario would have a negligible impact on American inflation and growth. In this scenario, there would be interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) considering any very modest rise in overall inflation as a passing phenomenon.
Long escalation scenario and risk of an oil shock: In the second scenario with a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and intensification of the conflict, a quarter of the world’s oil passing through this passage, which is also a vital maritime route for liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, and industrial metals, a several-month war would lead to a lasting energy crisis, a constant rise in oil prices, and in this second scenario, the shock would be significant enough to negatively impact economic growth, inflation, and the job market, with the risk of a stagflationary situation, namely an upward risk for inflation and downward for growth.
What conclusion do you draw from this unprecedented context?
Energy is at the core of national security, and the main beneficiary of these tensions is Russia, the world’s leading natural gas reservoir with over 35,000 trillion cubic meters of gas. American companies intend to invest massively once the conflict with Ukraine is resolved, being close to both Europe, with operational pipeline capacity of around 150 billion cubic meters of gas, and Asia through both LNG and pipelines with the operational Power of Siberia delivering gas to China, the Siberia-Pacific pipeline transporting Russian oil to China, Japan, and South Korea, and the Fore Siberia 2 projects underway to increase these volumes, aiming to provide up to 50 billion additional cubic meters of gas through Mongolia by 2030.
Regarding their impacts on hydrocarbon prices, it is not in the interest of the future of the global economy, nor of the United States of America, where the return of inflation poses a risk for President Trump to lose the majority in parliament, his election largely due to his promise to control inflation, nor of Europe and India, nor of China heavily dependent on energy imports, nor of Iran, which risks financial suffocation if this conflict persists.
This conflict heralds a new reconfiguration of power relations in the Middle East and must be placed within the framework of tensions in the Middle East, fighting against all forms of extremism where for the security of the State of Israel, a reliable Palestinian state is essential. History has shown that religions, Judaism, Christianity, and the Muslim world, have fought against all forms of hatred and coexisted for shared prosperity. In conclusion, I am convinced that Africa, which will be what Africans want it to be, facing all the covetousness and foreign interference, will be the locomotive of the global economy between 2040/2050, provided there is good governance and the promotion of knowledge.
