By Jérémie Wakilongo*
As tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel reach a climax on March 4, 2026, the world is no longer content to observe the risk of a military conflagration; it is witnessing the doctrinal collapse of the multilateral order born in 1945. By refusing to provide a diplomatic “way out” to Tehran, Western strategy of asphyxiation is breaking the very tool of global stability: the United Nations.
The paradox of the cornered rat: the failure of strategic planning
In military strategy, Sun Tzu already taught that one should never completely block an enemy’s way out, lest they fight with the fury of despair. But long before him, the wisdom of African empires, notably that of the Mali Empire under Soundiata Keïta, favored the strength of oaths and dialogue rather than the annihilation of the adversary. The Charter of Manden (1235) already laid down the principle of respecting the integrity of others to avoid chaos.
By depriving Iran of any prospect of sovereign survival, the West is breaking with this millennia-old rationality. The risk is no longer just conventional: a cornered actor can become the driving force behind a “scorched earth policy.” This is the essence of my work The Confession of a Criminal Before Death: I analyze how, under the weight of perceived injustice as existential, one designated as a criminal by the established order eventually dons the mantle of a protective hero.
The shadow of 1960 and the mirror of empires
This strategic error of encirclement cruelly resonates with the Congolese crisis of 1960. By refusing any diplomatic solution to Patrice Lumumba, the powers of that time themselves forged the symbol they wanted to destroy. History teaches us that lasting empires, like that of Mali, knew how to integrate mediation as a pillar of their power. In contrast, the current approach of “maximum pressure” resembles the arrogance of declining empires. It transforms a complex geopolitical actor into a symbol of global resistance.
The UN: chronicle of a planned obsolescence
Originally from Goma, in the East of the DRC, I experienced war firsthand. My on-the-ground experience, recounted in my book 90 Days in the UN Camp, highlights the structural flaws of international protection. Today, the inability of the Security Council to propose a credible mediation in the face of Iran resembles the death knell of a system. If the UN can no longer guarantee collective security through law, it loses its legitimacy in favor of regional alliances perceived as more credible.
Conclusion: Rehabilitating the diplomacy of survival
The art of war is not total destruction, but the search for a new stability. The Mali Empire itself faded away through the gradual erosion of its mediation principles. Without an honorable way out for Tehran, the global shock could leave behind nothing but a field of institutional ruins. It is urgent that planners rediscover the virtue of survival diplomacy before the pillars of the global temple collapse upon us all.
About Jérémie Wakilongo
Jérémie Wakilongo is an expert in regional planning and writer-analyst. Former journalist (RCM France) based in Goma. Author of “The Confession of a Criminal Before Death” and “90 Days in the UN Camp”.
