The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nigeria grew by 4.07% in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, on a year-on-year basis, according to data released on February 27, 2026 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
This growth is driven by a widespread dynamic in the agriculture, industry, and services sectors. It is accelerating compared to the 3.98% recorded in the third quarter and also marks an improvement from the 3.76% in the same quarter of the previous year.
For the entire year, the indicators are also positive: annual GDP growth stood at 3.87% in 2025, compared to 3.38% in 2024, confirming a trend of gradual acceleration since the beginning of the year.
This progress is the result of particularly broad sectoral dynamics. The agricultural sector, the country’s largest employer, recorded a growth of 4.00% in the fourth quarter, compared to only 2.54% in the same period in 2024, driven in particular by a good food production campaign. The industry, on the other hand, grew by 3.88% (compared to 2.49% a year earlier), led by the manufacturing of food products, beverages, and tobacco.
However, the services sector remains the pillar of the Nigerian economy, with a growth of 4.15% and a 55.92% share of real GDP. Information and communication technologies, financial services, real estate, and retail trade all contributed to supporting the expansion.
Black gold in decline, but non-oil sector strong
Nigeria’s historical dependence on its oil sector continues to erode in GDP figures. The non-oil sector accounted for 97.13% of total economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2025, a record that the local press analyzes as an indication of “the country’s progressive structural transformation.” The non-oil sector grew by 3.99% year-on-year, confirming its strength.
On the oil side, daily production stood at 1.58 million barrels per day, down from 1.64 million in the third quarter, but up compared to the 1.54 million barrels produced in the fourth quarter of 2024. The annual growth of the oil sector in real value still reached 6.79%, its best result in several years, bringing the annual growth of the entire oil sector to 8.50% for 2025.
An evolving African giant
As the largest economy in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) ahead of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, Nigeria ranks fourth among African economies behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, with a nominal GDP of around $188 billion, according to the 2025 data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the institution already projects that the country will climb to third place in 2026, ahead of Algeria.
Once Africa’s largest economy (until 2022), Nigeria has over 230 million inhabitants, making it the most populous country on the continent. It is also the 6th largest in the world with an annual demographic rate of 2%, and UN projections place it in 3rd place by 2050 after India and China.
