By Dr. Abderrahmane Mebtoul, University Professor, international expert in strategic management
The tensions between the United States and Iran, both members of the BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) — two cosmopolitan groupings bringing together heterogeneous political regimes and strategic alliances — clearly show that the current and likely future architecture of international relations is based not on feelings, but on interests. The recent experience of Venezuela is a striking illustration of this.
In this context, the UN appears largely powerless to influence major contemporary world events, often limiting itself to verbal condemnations with limited effects, underpinned by implicit trade-offs between certain major powers in a logic of sharing the world. It is therefore useful to recall the objectives of these two organizations which, in their statutes, claim solidarity and collective defense of their members.
1. The BRICS and the BRICS+
In order to break free from Western domination, particularly that of the United States, new international organizations are emerging. The BRICS, initially composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, have expanded with the creation of the BRICS+, integrating six new members (Argentina having since withdrawn), including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Iran.
Meeting in Kazan, Russia, from October 22 to 24, 2024, the BRICS+ also established a group of partner countries comprising thirteen states: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Uganda, Serbia, Thailand, Turkey, and Uzbekistan.
China is now the main driving force behind this organization: the world’s second-largest economy, the leading global exporter, and an increasingly influential investor, it imports significant volumes of raw materials and semi-finished products to support its exports and domestic consumption. However, the results remain mixed. The intensification of intra-BRICS trade is hindered by inadequate economic and logistical infrastructure. According to some international data, nearly 80% of the growth in trade between BRICS countries involves China, with a significant increase in trade between India and Russia.
According to the organizers of the Kazan summit, the combined GDP of the BRICS+ would exceed $60 trillion, and their share of global gross domestic product would now be higher than that of the G7, with sustained growth momentum.
In an effort to break free from the Bretton Woods institutions (IMF and World Bank), the New Development Bank (NDB) was created, inaugurated on July 15, 2014, during the 6th BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil. Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates joined the NDB in 2021, Egypt in 2023, and Algeria in 2024. It is currently chaired by Dilma Rousseff, former president of Brazil.
Despite these initiatives, the dollar — and, to a lesser extent, the euro — continues to dominate international transactions. The replacement of the dollar in intra-BRICS+ trade is not unanimously supported within the group and is unlikely to be considered in the short term, perhaps by 2030. According to IMF data (April 28, 2023), the dollar’s share of global payments is around 38%, while its share of global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% in 1999 to 58% in 2022. The euro accounts for 20.5%, the yen 5.5%, the pound sterling 5%, and the Chinese yuan only 2.7%.
There is still a long way to go, both for the BRICS and for the members of the SCO, with the evolution depending mainly on the increase in their economic weight in the global GDP between 2025 and 2030.
2. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an intergovernmental organization established on June 15, 2001, in Shanghai by China, Russia, and four former Soviet republics in Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. In 2016, India and Pakistan joined the organization, followed by Iran in July 2023, after being an observer since 2005.
Like the BRICS, the SCO advocates for a multipolar world based on co-development and reducing global inequalities. Claiming the “Shanghai spirit,” it is now the largest regional organization in the world geographically, covering nearly 34 million km².
The 22nd summit, held on September 15 and 16, 2023, in Samarkand (Uzbekistan), brought together 14 countries around common goals: building mutual trust, balance and diversification in security, economy, and diplomacy, and asserting the principle of non-interference in internal affairs.
The SCO currently has three observer states — Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia — as well as several dialogue partners, including Saudi Arabia (since March 29, 2023), Kuwait, Turkey (a NATO member), Qatar, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, and Nepal. Despite being rejected for BRICS membership at the last summit in South Africa, Algeria has officially applied to join the SCO as an observer state.
Conclusion
While a joint naval exercise between Russia, China, and Iran is underway in South African waters, against a backdrop of increased geopolitical tensions with Washington, and the Iranian navy has announced live-fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 21% of global oil consumption passes — many experts believe that a generalization of the conflict will likely be avoided. An escalation would indeed cause a surge in oil prices, endangering global economic growth, including that of the United States.
The goal of major powers is not so much the establishment of democracy as the change of regimes in their own interests. The recent experience of Venezuela is a clear illustration of this. The lesson to be drawn is that there are no lasting friendships or brotherhoods in international relations. A regime — not to be confused with the State — can only ensure its survival by relying on its own economic and military strength, unwavering support from its population, and democratic governance that takes into account its cultural anthropology, while maneuvering cautiously within international alliances based on often implicit trade-offs.
