The recent revision of Senegal’s national accounts base continues to fuel the debate on the country’s budget trajectory. According to Oxford Economics, while this rebasing undoubtedly improves the statistical appearance of the fiscal position, it does not dispel the structural concerns related to debt sustainability.
Based on provisional data published by the ANSD, the debt/GDP ratio now stands at around 110%, compared to the 130% previously mentioned by the IMF. This mechanical decrease visually eases the government, engaged in a delicate period of political and financial adjustment.
However, the fundamentals remain unchanged. “This improves the outlook, but does not change the underlying budget reality: nominal debt, interest charges, and immediate financing needs remain the same,” warns Leeuwner Esterhuysen, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics. The firm also estimates that this technical revision will only marginally alter the present value of debt in the IMF’s sustainability analysis, a key indicator in assessing a country’s distress level.
The issue goes beyond numbers. The timing of the rebasing comes in a political context where Ousmane Sonko asserts his opposition to any debt restructuring, a position he justifies by his commitment to economic sovereignty. At the same time, Dakar continues its dialogue with the IMF, a sign that part of the executive branch remains in favor of a formal agreement framework.
This financial equation has entered the international stage. From November 22 to 24, Ousmane Sonko and Finance Minister Cheikh Diba made a discreet but strategic trip to Abu Dhabi, where they reportedly sought some form of financial support. A signal that, according to Oxford Economics, reflects the increasing pressure on the state’s cash flow and the need to diversify budgetary oxygen sources in a context where domestic maneuvering room is shrinking.
Despite the arguments put forward by the government – a “high but manageable” debt – Oxford Economics urges caution. “Improving ratios support the official narrative, but do not resolve structural budgetary pressures. We do not believe the IMF will easily be convinced that restructuring will not be necessary, in one form or another,” concludes Esterhuysen.
In the end, Senegal is walking a tightrope: buying time through rebasing, maintaining internal political balance, seeking external financial support, and simultaneously negotiating a new framework for public policies. It remains to be seen how long this strategy can hold up against accounting reality.
Photo caption:
September 2025. Prime Minister Ousmane SONKO received in Abu Dhabi by Vice President and Vice Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates Cheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank and the High Investment Authority.
