By Junior MBUYI – International financial expert, founder of JPG Consulting Partners
While banking rates remain historically low on the continent, French banks are gradually withdrawing from the African market. Is this a simple strategic readjustment or an indicator of a deeper geopolitical shift? The essential question remains: who will finance Africa tomorrow, at a time when Europe is disengaging and China is boldly advancing its pieces?
1. A now structural withdrawal
Since 2023, announcements have been following one after the other like dominoes. Société Générale is selling or considering selling most of its African subsidiaries (Morocco, Chad, Congo, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mauritania…). BNP Paribas, already in retreat since 2015, has confirmed its disengagement from West Africa. Crédit Agricole and BPCE have also significantly reduced their presence.
This retreat is not a temporary accident: it is part of a deliberate strategy to refocus on so-called core markets, considered more profitable, more mature, and better regulated.
2. Economic rationality… revealing a systemic bias
Several objective factors explain this movement:
• Margins deemed insufficient in relation to perceived risk: despite sometimes attractive gross returns, the weight of defaults, currency volatility, and political uncertainties affect net profitability.
• Increasingly stringent prudential standards: Basel III, AML-CFT, KYC/CRS requirements… Compliance is costly, especially in unstable or low-income environments.
• A de-risking logic: faced with reputational risks or extraterritorial sanctions, some banks prefer to exit rather than manage a complex portfolio.
But this disengagement goes beyond accounting logic. It weakens African banking systems, breaks trade financing chains (correspondent banking), and reduces financing opportunities for SMEs. It embodies a strategic and normative withdrawal of the West, at a time when Africa is entering a new phase of growth.
3. An African paradox: withdrawal from a high-potential market
The timing is puzzling. While:
• less than 45% of the population is banked (sometimes less than 20% in some countries),
• nearly 70% of transactions are still conducted in cash,
• the population is young, urban, connected, with growing needs (savings, credit, housing, education, digital),
… Western banks are throwing in the towel.
In other words: Africa remains one of the last major banking markets to conquer, but now it is other actors who are interested.
4. Geopolitical recomposition: finance becomes multipolar
This European withdrawal is part of a broader global dynamic. In a world in recomposition, finance follows geopolitical fault lines.
While Western banks reduce their exposure, Chinese, Arab, or African institutions are advancing:
• ICBC, China’s largest bank, is a strategic shareholder of Standard Bank, a major pan-African player.
• China Exim Bank and China Development Bank are heavily financing infrastructure projects in exchange for sovereign guarantees or privileged access to resources.
• Chinese commercial banks are involved in trade finance and cross-financing within Chinese business consortia.
Their advantage?
- Fewer extraterritorial regulatory constraints (AML, OFAC, etc.).
- A long-term influence logic, embedded in Chinese geo-economic strategy.
Result: where Europe withdraws, China advances, secures assets, and weaves structural alliances in the most strategic sectors (cobalt, lithium, copper…).
5. An opportunity window for African actors
This withdrawal is not a void, but an opportunity window. Several African banks have understood this well:
• Vista Bank has acquired several subsidiaries of Société Générale (Guinea, Chad, Burkina Faso).
• Coris Bank International, a dynamic player in the UEMOA, continues its expansion.
• Attijariwafa Bank (Morocco), Access Bank (Nigeria), Ecobank, UBA, and BGFI capitalize on this recomposition.
These groups share three strengths:
– a better understanding of local realities,
– technological agility,
– and a strong pan-African strategy.
6. Building African financial sovereignty: three levers
To turn this transition into a strategic advantage, three pillars must be consolidated:
a) Digital innovation
• Accelerate mobile money, neobanks, algorithmic credit;
• Integrate local fintechs into formal banking ecosystems;
• Create interoperable regional platforms (clearing, payments, trade finance).
b) Strengthening pan-African banks
• Encourage regional consolidation;
• Promote South-South cooperation (Morocco-Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria-CEMAC…);
• Facilitate access to regional capital markets.
c) The strategic role of States
• Establish appropriate but robust regulations;
• Develop public guarantee instruments (credit funds, co-financing with DFIs);
• Adopt a banking industrial policy focused on SME financing.
7. Conclusion: time to define our own rules of the game
The withdrawal of French banks from Africa should not be seen as a decline, but as a necessary wake-up call.
It obliges us to:
• break free from inherited financial dependence,
• understand the multipolar world,
• and lay the foundations for pan-African banking sovereignty.
Because the real issue is not who finances Africa, but who sets the financial rules of the game on the continent.
The time has come to write them ourselves.
