Fitch Ratings maintained Gabon’s sovereign rating at CCC on June 20, 2025, reflecting a perceived high level of risk. According to Fitch, this decision is explained by the country’s persistent dependence on volatile oil revenues, challenges in public finance management, and limited access to external and regional financing. However, this evaluation comes in the context of a successful political transition and economic measures that Gabonese authorities believe have not been adequately taken into account.
Reasons given by Fitch Ratings
The agency highlights that, despite a per capita GDP relatively higher than some peers rated in the same category, Gabon faces a series of vulnerabilities:
– A significant increase in public spending estimated at 15% in 2024, mainly due to a rise in the wage bill and a surge in capital investments, from 2.3% to 5.5% of GDP.
– A budget deficit of 2.5% of GDP on a commitment basis, although brought close to balance in cash accounting, partly through the accumulation of arrears (2.8% of GDP).
– Expected continued budget deficits in 2025 (2.4%) and 2026 (2.1%), and a moderate pace of arrears accumulation.
Despite the successful organization of presidential elections in April 2025 and the accession to power of transitional President Brice Oligui, Fitch believes that the details of the new government’s economic and budgetary programs are still to be clarified.
A government response focused on stabilization
In a statement released on June 24, 2025, the Ministry of Economy, Finance, Debt and Participations, responsible for the Fight against High Cost of Living, acknowledges this decision while regretting that it does not yet fully reflect “several positive signals of political and economic stabilization.”
The government highlights:
– The success of the institutional transition, with a transparent presidential election in April 2025, ensuring greater stability.
– The budgetary commitment of the new executive, aiming for a return to primary budget balance (excluding investments) by 2026.
– The revival of financial cooperation with bilateral and multilateral partners, thanks to ongoing reforms in governance, anti-corruption efforts, and budget transparency.
– Progress in debt management, partially praised by Fitch, which has helped alleviate some liquidity pressures.
The statement also emphasizes Gabon’s commitment to anchor its economy in a “realistic, sustainable, and sovereign” trajectory, while acknowledging the challenges raised by the agency. For the authorities, this rating represents a call to accelerate structural reforms, strengthen budget credibility, and deepen dialogue with donors.
Challenges for the months ahead
As Gabon seeks to regain investors’ trust and access concessional financing, the clarification of its economic program and the effective implementation of announced reforms will be closely monitored. If the fundamentals remain fragile, the political transition and signals of budgetary commitment could pave the way for a gradual upgrade of the sovereign rating, provided that promises are translated into measurable actions.
