{"id":494658,"date":"2026-10-05T23:09:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T23:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2026\/10\/05\/in-paris-the-africa-risk-forum-unveils-its-africa-risk-index-to-reshape-the-measurement-of-continental-risk\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T23:09:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T23:09:15","slug":"in-paris-the-africa-risk-forum-unveils-its-africa-risk-index-to-reshape-the-measurement-of-continental-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2026\/10\/05\/in-paris-the-africa-risk-forum-unveils-its-africa-risk-index-to-reshape-the-measurement-of-continental-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"In Paris, the Africa Risk Forum unveils its Africa Risk Index\u00ae to reshape the measurement of continental risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pdfprnt-buttons pdfprnt-buttons-post pdfprnt-top-bottom-left\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>While the African continent has historically suffered from a systemic overvaluation of its risk by traditional rating agencies, the Africa Risk think tank unveiled on Thursday, October 1, 2026 in Paris its new index: the Africa Risk Index\u00ae (ARI). Covering the 54 states of the continent, this tool with proven scientific rigor aims to provide Africa with its own decision-making and financial sovereignty.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>By Christine Holzbauer, in Paris<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What if Africa finally changed the way its risk is assessed in international markets? A central question that animated the many personalities from the political, financial, and diplomatic world who came from all over the continent to participate in the first edition of the Africa Risk Forum. Organized by the Africa Risk think tank &#8211; Strategic Institute for African Sovereignty and Transformation, chaired by financial expert Junior Mbuyi (CEO of JPG Consulting Partner Group), this high-level meeting was an opportunity to present the results of the Africa Risk Index\u00ae (ARI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>&#8220;The evaluation of African sovereign risk can no longer be the monopoly of actors whose frameworks underestimate the real resilience of our economies and overcharge the cost of capital for our states,&#8221;<\/em> emphasized its creator in his opening speech. <em>&#8220;The myth of high African risk costs our economies billions of dollars each year in undue premiums. The ARI is designed to correct this information asymmetry,&#8221;<\/em> he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For decades, the evaluation of African economies has mainly relied on methodologies designed outside the continent. Approaches that, while structuring global financial markets, have often maintained a persistent gap between &#8220;perceived risk&#8221; and &#8220;real risk,&#8221; penalizing financial attractiveness, debt sustainability, and capital costs for priority investments in Africa. So much so that many initiatives have recently emerged under the auspices of the African Union to further mitigate this risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Scientific rigor serving financial sovereignty<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Far from being just another ranking, the ARI aims to inaugurate a new integrated Risk Intelligence chain: from raw data to stress testings, to the direct impact on public and private decisions. The index is based on in-depth analysis of 54 countries, 48 variables, and over 70,000 data points, articulated around four fundamental pillars: macroeconomic resilience, soundness of the banking system, external vulnerability, and governance and institutional quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scientifically supervised methodology combines Z-score normalization, multi-criteria weighting, confidence intervals up to 99%, as well as Monte-Carlo simulations and rigorous historical backtesting. The model delivers a final score (Risk Resilience Score) graded from 0 to 100, backed by the proprietary ARI Grades\u2122 rating grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among the Top 5 most resilient countries (Risk Resilience Score), we find Mauritius (78.2\/100 &#8211; Grade AAA1), Morocco (74.5\/100 &#8211; Grade AA2), Rwanda (71.8\/100 &#8211; Grade AA3), Botswana (70.4\/100 &#8211; Grade A1), and C\u00f4te d&#8217;Ivoire (68.9\/100 &#8211; Grade A2). The pilot project conducted in The Gambia had a score of 64.6\/100 (grade CA1), illustrating the positive dynamics of reforming small economies. The continental average of the 54 African states stands at 52.4\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition to presenting the ARI index, Africa Risk also demonstrated the Risk Calculator Engine (RCE), an advanced technological solution designed to assist prudential regulators, commercial banks, and finance ministries in advanced modeling of capital requirements (Basel III \/ Basel IV) and counterparty risk management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A comprehensive decision-making ecosystem<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>&#8220;Our goal is not to distort reality or mask weaknesses, but to offer an objective and scientific measure based on tangible data and real transformation dynamics,&#8221;<\/em> declared Dr. Vera Songwe during the Africa Finance &#038; Banking Leaders Forum high-level panel. Moderated by RFI&#8217;s star presenter Bruno Faure, this panel featured major figures from continental and international finance alongside Junior Mbuyi, such as Moustapha Rawji (CEO of Rawbank), Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Visnovsky (ACPR \/ Banque de France), Isma\u00ebl Nab\u00e9 (Minister of International Cooperation of Guinea), as well as executives from the AfDB, IMF, and World Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key insights from this index include that West African (UEMOA) and North African banking sectors display the highest scores for prudential resilience. However, the weight of external debt service and exposure to climate shocks remain the main risk factors affecting the ratings of low-income countries. &#8220;<em>As the leading banking player in the DRC, we see daily the gap between risk perception from Western capitals and the reality on the ground. Tools like the ARI are essential to recalculate capital requirements and stimulate credit to the local private sector,&#8221;<\/em> estimated the head of Rawbank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The representative of the Banque de France emphasized the need for regulators to rely on proven and transparent models. &#8220;<em>The alignment of Basel III\/IV prudential modeling standards with African endogenous data is an essential step to modernize credit risk assessment,&#8221;<\/em> he affirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A gathering of political and financial decision-makers in Paris<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This view was shared by senior officials from the African Development Bank (AfDB), IMF, World Bank, as well as the Guinean Minister of International Cooperation, Isma\u00ebl Nab\u00e9, who all emphasized the urgent need for renewed financial diplomacy. &#8220;<em>Africa is not asking for special treatment, it demands methodological justice,&#8221;<\/em> said Dr. Cheikh Tidiane Gadio before adding: &#8220;<em>The strategic autonomy of the continent inexorably depends on its decision-making sovereignty and mastery of its own risk statistics.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The former Senegalese Minister of Foreign Affairs intervened in the context of the Grand Strategic Dialogue, moderated by journalist Denise Epot\u00e9, alongside Michel Sapin (former French Minister of Finance and Grand Guest of Honor), Bernard Cazeneuve (former French Prime Minister), and Rama Yade (Senior Director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council). Previously, the Grand Diplomatic Dialogue allowed ambassadors from the DRC, Chad, C\u00f4te d&#8217;Ivoire, and Senegal to speak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The event also presented Junior Mbuyi&#8217;s new book, &#8220;From Chaos to Growth &#8211; Towards an African Revolution?&#8221;, prefaced by Dr. Cheikh Tidiane Gadio, before concluding with the Africa Risk Awards ceremony and a jazz concert performed in tribute to continental creativity. As the motto engraved at the heart of this new financial instrument summarizes: &#8220;<em>Measuring African risk with a global methodology and African intelligence<\/em>&#8221; is the ambitious bet that should strengthen the economic sovereignty and financial diplomacy of the continent in the future.<\/p>\n<div class=\"pdfprnt-buttons pdfprnt-buttons-post pdfprnt-top-bottom-left\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the African continent has historically suffered from a systemic overvaluation of its risk by traditional rating agencies, the Africa Risk think tank unveiled on Thursday, October 1, 2026 in Paris its new index: the Africa Risk Index\u00ae (ARI). Covering the 54 states of the continent, this tool with proven scientific rigor aims to provide<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":537208,"featured_media":451927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12591,12046,12065],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-494658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-feature","category-leaders-en","category-press-releases","pmpro-has-access"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.5 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>In Paris, the Africa Risk Forum unveils its Africa Risk Index\u00ae to reshape the measurement of continental risk - Financial Afrik<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Headed by Adama Wade and his team of 20 journalists, Kapital Afrik offers strategic and financial information to executives and managers. 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