{"id":493369,"date":"2026-07-21T04:23:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T04:23:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2026\/07\/21\/cemac-two-researchers-propose-a-4-billion-emergency-fund-against-geopolitical-shocks\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T04:23:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T04:23:41","slug":"cemac-two-researchers-propose-a-4-billion-emergency-fund-against-geopolitical-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2026\/07\/21\/cemac-two-researchers-propose-a-4-billion-emergency-fund-against-geopolitical-shocks\/","title":{"rendered":"CEMAC: two researchers propose a $4 billion emergency fund against geopolitical shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

In a study presented on July 10, 2016 in Abidjan, at the African Economic Conference, two researchers – Arnold Foko Kengne from the University of Dschang, and Fabrice Ewolo Bitoto from the University of Johannesburg – propose that the Central African States Bank (BEAC) establish a financial “airbag” ranging from 1,700 to 2,300 billion CFA francs (approximately 3 to 4 billion USD) to cushion geopolitical shocks. According to the authors, this liquidity cushion would aim to “secure vital external purchases (food, energy, medicine) when international tensions escalate.”<\/p>\n

To support their conclusions, the two authors analyzed nearly forty years of monthly data, from 1987 to 2025, covering the six member states of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). Their measuring tool: the global geopolitical risk index, calculated from the volume of press articles dealing with conflicts, military threats, or diplomatic crises. Their central finding can be summed up in one sentence: “beyond a threshold close to 150 on this index, imports in the sub-region no longer hold up.” Up to that point, the incompressible demand for refined oil products and other strategic inputs maintains a minimal flow. “Beyond this threshold, logistical disruptions, trade restrictions, and tightening credit cause a much more severe contraction, with a risk of supply shock and inflationary pressure,” state Arnold Foko Kengne and Fabrice Ewolo Bitoto.<\/p>\n

An automatic trigger, reserved for essential goods<\/p>\n

Named ‘Geopolitical Emergency Liquidity Facility’, the mechanism would automatically activate once the index crosses the 150 threshold. Its resources would primarily go towards financing food, energy, and pharmaceutical imports, with simplified disbursement procedures. The researchers propose a three-tier monitoring system: standard monitoring when the index is below 100 points, heightened vigilance between 100 and 150, and crisis management with daily monitoring beyond that point.<\/p>\n

However, a clarification is necessary. Even with billions of dollars, this facility would not guarantee the physical availability of goods if ports or corridors were to close. It would only play a financial buffer role, ensuring the availability of currencies to honor payments.<\/p>\n

The financing of the mechanism still needs to be defined. The study has not yet decided between using the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves, state contributions, regional borrowing, or a combination of several sources. Similarly, no eligibility criteria have been defined, nor the distribution key among the six countries or the role assigned to commercial banks. Doubts also persist about the method: “relying on an index based on media coverage as an automatic trigger raises questions about the duration of the overrun and the entity responsible for verifying it.”<\/p>\n

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a study presented on July 10, 2016 in Abidjan, at the African Economic Conference, two researchers – Arnold Foko Kengne from the University of Dschang, and Fabrice Ewolo Bitoto from the University of Johannesburg – propose that the Central African States Bank (BEAC) establish a financial “airbag” ranging from 1,700 to 2,300 billion CFA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":536817,"featured_media":493372,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"translated_post_url_fr":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/2026\/07\/18\/cemac-deux-chercheurs-proposent-un-fonds-durgence-de-4-milliards-usd-contre-les-chocs-geopolitiques\/","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[11996],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-493369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-finance-en","pmpro-has-access"],"yoast_head":"\nCEMAC: two researchers propose a $4 billion emergency fund against geopolitical shocks - Financial Afrik<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Headed by Adama Wade and his team of 20 journalists, Kapital Afrik offers strategic and financial information to executives and managers. 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