{"id":492050,"date":"2026-06-18T23:58:51","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T23:58:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2026\/06\/18\/mauritania-a-look-at-economic-policy\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T23:59:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T23:59:00","slug":"mauritania-a-look-at-economic-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2026\/06\/18\/mauritania-a-look-at-economic-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Mauritania: A Look at Economic Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

By Issa Cheiguer<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The controversy over fuel prices has at least one merit: it has brought Mauritanian economic policy out of silence. It has forced choices to be expressed, numbers to circulate, positions to be confronted.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I joined in with a first contribution. I return today, not to reopen the same file, but to look further: towards the fundamentals of the economy, towards the promises of gas, towards a social safety net whose most recent figures reveal a reality broader than previously thought.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I always write as an attentive citizen, with no other legitimacy than that of verified facts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coherence of policies: a nuance on the order of decisions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My first contribution acknowledged the legitimacy of the instrument choice, price adjustments accompanied by targeted transfers, while noting that the Central Bank also signals an excess of bank liquidity as a source of inflation. This point deserves further elaboration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Sidi Mohamed Biya, a distinguished economist[1]<\/a>, formulated a nuance that I quote because it is accurate. Faced with an energy shock, the coherent response is precisely the one that was followed: a division of roles between monetary policy, acting on demand and inflation expectations, and targeted transfers, protecting real income without fueling overall demand. A transfer to vulnerable households does not create inflationary pressure in the same way as a general budget expansion. That is its raison d’\u00eatre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sequencing, often overlooked in this debate, confirms this. The government’s social decisions date back to March 31, 2026.[2]<\/strong><\/a> The increase in the key rate occurred on May 18, 2026.[3]<\/strong><\/a> The Central Bank therefore acted after the government’s decision, not before. It’s not “loosen, then tighten”: it’s the opposite. The criticism of a sequential inconsistency loses some of its foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There remains a real blind spot. Mauritanian inflation is not only imported through fuels. It is also fueled, as the Central Bank itself says, by an excess of liquidity in the banking system. This second, internal engine is distinct from the debate on fuels. It is on bank liquidity and the composition of public spending that the critique of economic policy finds its strongest bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The macroeconomic foundation: figures that contradict the narrative of fragility<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before any conclusion on the fragility of the Mauritanian economy, some objective benchmarks are necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Public debt stands at around 42% of GDP, deemed sustainable by the IMF with a moderate risk of over-indebtedness.[4]<\/strong><\/a> Public revenues are around 22.5% of GDP, increasing thanks to new fiscal measures. Foreign exchange reserves cover approximately 6.4 months of imports, a comfortable level. Growth reached 4.0% in 2025, with a rebound expected in 2026, driven by the start of gas production.[5]<\/strong><\/a> The IMF praises prudent budget management, anchored on a rule that protects spending from commodity price fluctuations.[6]<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This picture does not describe an economy in rupture. It describes a tense economy, with structural challenges still open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gas: a promise that is not automatically guaranteed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the end of 2024, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project delivered its first gas. The first LNG shipments followed in 2025, and production is gradually ramping up to its nominal capacity.[7]<\/a> Mauritania is now a gas producer. That’s not insignificant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But rent is not transformation. It can finance one, provided that institutions are seriously committed to it. Roads, accessible energy, schools, justice, a productive private sector: this is what rent can buy if properly directed. A recent signal is moving in this direction. In March 2026, the Central Bank announced a partnership with the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), mobilizing around $900 million in Islamic finance for Mauritanian businesses.[8]<\/a> It’s a useful step. But local content is not decreed: it is built through training, regulated subcontracting, and time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real sovereignty: stocks, rules, competition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mauritania imports almost all of its refined fuels: around 800,000 tons of diesel and 125,000 tons of gasoline per year.[9]<\/strong><\/a> Its storage capacities remain limited, and its distribution logistics are concentrated among a few operators. This dependence has a cost in foreign exchange and a real vulnerability to every global shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sovereignty that deserves discussion is not an abstract notion. It is a concrete resilience: sufficient stocks, transparent competition rules, an ability to monitor margins and arbitrate between operators. Gas, by gradually reducing the energy bill for electricity, will eventually alleviate pressure on foreign exchange reserves. But the effect on transport fuels will neither be immediate nor direct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Social: figures that change the image<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is where the most recent information forces a revision of the initial framing of this debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During a meeting with representatives of the most representative unions on June 11, 2026, the President of the Republic made public the figures of the ongoing social effort.[10]<\/strong><\/a> On the sole item of energy price support, the State had already mobilized the equivalent of 4.06 billion MRU. This amount is expected to reach 13 billion MRU by the end of the year. At the same time, food assistance is provided to an additional 155,000 families, and monetary transfers reach 352,000 households across the country, nearly three times more than the initially announced 124,000. Over 42,500 civilian and military officials, as well as 27,600 retirees, benefit from exceptional support. The total envelope of social interventions is expected to exceed 14.8 billion MRU for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These figures shed light on three points of the debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the real coverage of the program.<\/strong> The criticism of the low number of beneficiaries deserves to be revised: 352,000 households is a significant effort, comparable to the coverage of the Tekavoul program at full capacity. The national social register has demonstrated its utility here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, the question of cost.<\/strong> Energy price support (13 billion MRU expected in 2026) far exceeds the estimate of pure capping presented in the first contribution (about 5 billion MRU for diesel alone). But the two figures are not directly comparable: “energy price support” covers a broader scope than just the petroleum tax on transport fuels, and likely includes electricity and other forms of energy. A more precise breakdown of this envelope is needed to decide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the nature of the approach chosen.<\/strong> The State has opted for a combination: partial price adjustments, sectoral energy support, multiple targeted transfers. This hybridization has a total cost that probably exceeds that of a pure option applied rigorously. It’s the price of a choice that protects, albeit imperfectly, without abruptly exposing households to the full shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Payments made through Tekavoul and the national social register remain modest in view of real needs. The real challenge, made visible by these figures, is to make these transfers regular rather than one-time, and to gradually increase their amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Yahya Ould Amar, economist and banker, reminded in a recent opinion piece that the poor should never be the adjustment variable for economic choices.[11]<\/strong><\/a> This requirement does not oppose targeted transfers. It commands them. Universal subsidy, seemingly social, sacrifices the poorest twice: it first spends on the wealthiest (those who consume the most fuel), then creates a deficit that the same vulnerable households will absorb in the next tightening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The projects that will determine the future<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The macroeconomic foundation is solid. The gas rent is underway. The social safety net is real, and broader than previously thought. What is still lacking is transformation: building an economy capable of creating value beyond rent and public spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This involves investing in human capital, as no natural wealth can replace a school that educates. It involves correcting regional imbalances, so that growth is seen throughout the country, not just in Nouakchott. And it involves institutions that operate consistently, beyond political and economic cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first mission of an economy is to manage its balances. The second, more difficult, is to make prosperity sustainable and shared. These two missions are not contradictory. But they do not advance at the same pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The debate on fuels had a virtue. It reminded us that protecting the most vulnerable and keeping public accounts in check are not two contradictory objectives. They require the same instruments: precision in targeting, regularity in disbursement, transparency in spending. It’s not a question of generosity. It’s a question of method.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An economy that knows how to count must also know how to build, and know who it protects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About Issa Cheiguer<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Issa Cheiguer<\/strong> is a Mauritanian expert in finance, investment, and strategic consulting. As President and CEO of Finance Conseil Investissement (FCI)<\/strong>, he assists companies and investors in structuring their projects and mobilizing financing. He works on private sector development and economic attractiveness of Mauritania. His expertise covers financial advisory, investment, and support for high-impact projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/strong><\/a> <\/strong>Mr. Sidi Mohamed Biya, graduate of ENSAE Paris, former Minister of Finance, President of the Regulatory Authority of the Mauritanian Financial Market (ARMF). Nuance formulated in the context of a personal contribution to the debate, credited here with his agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/strong><\/a> Council of Ministers of March 31, 2026 and national press (infoplus.mr, rapideinfo.mr). Amounts expressed in new ouguiyas (MRU); 1 MRU = 10 old ouguiyas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[3]<\/strong><\/a>Central Bank of Mauritania, Monetary Policy Council press release of May 18, 2026: key rate raised from 6.0% to 6.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[4]<\/strong><\/a> International Monetary Fund, Country Report No. 25\/170; Ministry of Finance, Economic and Financial Report: public debt of around 42% of GDP, public revenues of around 22.5% of GDP, foreign exchange reserves of around 6.4 months of imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[5]<\/strong><\/a> International Monetary Fund, press release of April 10, 2026: 4.0% growth in 2025. African Development Bank, Economic Outlook in Mauritania 2025-2026: current account deficit close to 7.5% of GDP, rebound expected in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[6]<\/strong><\/a> International Monetary Fund, press release of the fifth review of the EFF\/ECF arrangements, January 2026: prudent budget management, budget rule protecting spending from commodity price volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[7]<\/a>Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project, conducted with Senegal (BP, main operator; Kosmos Energy): first gas delivered in December 2024; initial production phase ramping up to a nominal capacity of 2.4 million tons of LNG per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[8]<\/strong><\/a>Central Bank of Mauritania, information letter of March 2026, published on April 9, 2026: partnership with the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), $900 million in Islamic finance for structuring investments and Mauritanian businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[9]<\/strong><\/a> Minister of Energy and Petroleum, statements reported by the Mauritanian News Agency (AMI), May 2026: annual imports of around 800,000 tons of diesel and 125,000 tons of gasoline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[10]<\/strong><\/a> Mauritanian News Agency (AMI) and national press (Al Akhbar, June 12, 2026): statements by the President of the Republic during a meeting with representatives of the most representative unions on June 11, 2026. Amounts are expressed in ouguiyas (former monetary unit, still used in common language) and are converted here to MRU: 40.6 billion ouguiyas = 4.06 billion MRU; 130 billion ouguiyas = 13 billion MRU; 148 billion ouguiyas = 14.8 billion MRU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[11]<\/strong><\/a> Yahya Ould Amar, economist and banker, “Getting out of poverty: the moral blind spot of the global economy,” Kapitalis, June 4, 2026.<\/p>\n

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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