{"id":485292,"date":"2025-09-24T08:36:46","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T08:36:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2025\/09\/24\/economy-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-thrives-on-the-dual-engine\/"},"modified":"2025-09-24T08:36:55","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T08:36:55","slug":"economy-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-thrives-on-the-dual-engine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2025\/09\/24\/economy-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-thrives-on-the-dual-engine\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) thrives on the “dual engine”"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

By George Pavel, Managing Director of Naga.com Middle East<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) entered 2025 with a clearer dynamic known as the “non-oil economy driving growth alongside hydrocarbon production dual engine”: non-oil growth ensuring the majority of progress, while hydrocarbons remained limited by previously decided OPEC+ quotas. This pattern is particularly visible in the United Arab Emirates where, in the first quarter, the overall GDP grew by 3.9% year-on-year, with a 5.3% increase in the non-oil sector, which now represents 77% of the economy. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also showed strong non-oil momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the second half, the negative impact of oil should gradually diminish with the gradual dismantling of OPEC+’s voluntary cuts. This evolution preserves non-oil momentum while allowing the oil sector to positively contribute to GDP towards the end of 2025 and in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2026, overall growth is expected to re-accelerate, with the resumption of oil production adding to resilient domestic demand. The IMF now projects a 3.6% growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025 (3.4% excluding oil), then 3.9% in 2026, confirming the logic of the “dual engine.” The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates forecasts a 4.9% growth in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026, driven by diversification in services, real estate, and industry. Qatar benefits from a distinct advantage: the North Field East project is expected to start production in mid-2026. The World Bank anticipates growth accelerating from 2.4% in 2025 to an average of 6.5% over 2026-2027 as LNG volumes increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The smaller economies of the GCC confirm this picture with clearer trajectories. Bahrain is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2025. Oman is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, while Kuwait would rebound to 2.2% in 2025. Collectively, the bloc is moving towards a more predictable and investment-friendly base, where the non-oil economy drives growth alongside hydrocarbon production.<\/p>\n

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By George Pavel, Managing Director of Naga.com Middle East The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) entered 2025 with a clearer dynamic known as the “non-oil economy driving growth alongside hydrocarbon production dual engine”: non-oil growth ensuring the majority of progress, while hydrocarbons remained limited by previously decided OPEC+ quotas. This pattern is particularly visible in the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":536766,"featured_media":485293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"translated_post_url_fr":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/2025\/09\/24\/economie-le-conseil-de-cooperation-du-golfe-ccg-carbure-au-double-moteur\/","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[12591,12046],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-485292","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-feature","8":"category-leaders-en","9":"pmpro-has-access"},"yoast_head":"\nEconomy: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) thrives on the "dual engine" - Financial Afrik<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Headed by Adama Wade and his team of 20 journalists, Kapital Afrik offers strategic and financial information to executives and managers. 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