{"id":480724,"date":"2024-12-31T01:26:46","date_gmt":"2024-12-31T01:26:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kapitalafrik.com\/?p=480724"},"modified":"2024-12-31T01:26:49","modified_gmt":"2024-12-31T01:26:49","slug":"ethiopias-exclusion-from-aussom-marks-a-new-chapter-in-horn-of-africa-dynamics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2024\/12\/31\/ethiopias-exclusion-from-aussom-marks-a-new-chapter-in-horn-of-africa-dynamics\/","title":{"rendered":"Ethiopia\u2019s Exclusion from AUSSOM Marks a New Chapter in Horn of Africa Dynamics"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

By Abshir Aden Ferro<\/strong>, CEO Fort Roche Group<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Somalia has officially excluded Ethiopia from the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on January 1, 2025. This decision, announced during a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting on December 27, 2024, is rooted in Ethiopia\u2019s controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland and broader regional tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This marks a significant departure from Ethiopia\u2019s longstanding role in Somali peacekeeping efforts. Ethiopia has been a core participant in missions dating back to AMISOM\u2019s launch in 2007. While the Ankara Declaration, signed in November 2024, sought to repair ties between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Somalia ultimately opted to chart a new path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In preparation for AUSSOM, Somalia has secured 11,000 troops through agreements with Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti, and Burundi, with Uganda contributing over half the forces. Ethiopia\u2019s exclusion creates a gap in traditional regional collaboration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diplomatic Shifts<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Somalia\u2019s decision reflects an evolving geopolitical alignment. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud\u2019s recent visits to Eritrea in November and December 2024 reinforced ties with President Isaias Afwerki and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Egypt, which has expressed interest in AUSSOM, may leverage this shift to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa. Analysts suggest that these diplomatic developments directly influenced Somalia\u2019s pivot away from Ethiopia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Funding Challenges<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Despite troop commitments, AUSSOM faces a major financial obstacle. A hybrid funding model proposed by the UK seeks to allocate seventy-five percent of the mission\u2019s budget to UN-assessed contributions, with the remaining twenty-five percent funded by international donors. While this model garnered support from Russia, China, the EU, and others, the United States rejected it during the UNSC meeting on December 27, citing concerns over its deviation from UN Resolution 2719 and its lack of financial sustainability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council has warned that unresolved funding issues could undermine AUSSOM\u2019s launch and stability in Somalia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Implications for the Region<\/strong>
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 1.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Shifting Alliances in the Horn of Africa: Somalia\u2019s exclusion of Ethiopia signals a shift in regional power dynamics. Alignments with Eritrea and Egypt could increase Eritrea\u2019s influence in Somali security efforts, given its history of training Somali forces. Advance Egypt\u2019s strategic goals, particularly countering Ethiopia\u2019s dominance and addressing Nile River disputes.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 2.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Impact on Ethiopia: Ethiopia\u2019s exclusion diminishes its role as a regional stabilizer, potentially straining its relationships with Somalia and Eritrea. Internally, this may refocus Ethiopia\u2019s attention on its domestic challenges, including the Tigray peace process.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 3.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 AUSSOM\u2019s Operational Viability: Funding delays could impair troop deployments and logistical support, weakening the mission\u2019s ability to counter Al-Shabaab effectively.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 4.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Regional Security Risks: A weakened AUSSOM could allow Al-Shabaab to exploit the vacuum, threatening Somalia and its neighbors while worsening humanitarian crises in the region.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 5.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 AU\u2019s Credibility and Leadership: AUSSOM\u2019s success is critical for the AU\u2019s reputation. Failure to address funding and operational issues could undermine future AU-led peacekeeping efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Timeline of Key Events<\/strong>
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a02007: Ethiopia joins AMISOM to combat Al-Shabaab.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0April 2022: AMISOM transitions to ATMIS.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0December 2023: UN Resolution 2719 proposes sustainable funding mechanisms for AU missions.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0November 2024: Somalia excludes Ethiopia from AUSSOM despite signing the Ankara Declaration.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0November\u2013December 2024: Somali President visits Eritrea twice, aligning with Eritrea and Egypt.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0December 27, 2024: Somalia confirms Ethiopia\u2019s exclusion; the US rejects the hybrid funding model.
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u2022\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0January 1, 2025: AUSSOM officially replaces ATMIS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethiopia\u2019s exclusion from AUSSOM represents a defining moment in the Horn of Africa. Somalia\u2019s realignment with Eritrea and Egypt highlights shifting alliances, while unresolved funding challenges cast doubt over AUSSOM\u2019s operational success. As the mission prepares to replace ATMIS, its ability to stabilize Somalia and counter Al-Shabaab depends on overcoming these obstacles. The stakes for Somalia, the AU, and the international community are immense, with regional stability hanging in the balance.<\/p>\n

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Abshir Aden Ferro, CEO Fort Roche Group Somalia has officially excluded Ethiopia from the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) on January 1, 2025. This decision, announced during a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting on December 27, 2024, is rooted in<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":536766,"featured_media":480725,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"aside","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"translated_post_url_fr":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[16412,12591],"tags":[21536,1540,15444],"class_list":{"0":"post-480724","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-aside","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-contribution","8":"category-feature","9":"tag-abshir-aden-ferro","10":"tag-ethiopia","11":"tag-somalia","12":"post_format-post-format-aside","13":"pmpro-has-access"},"yoast_head":"\nEthiopia\u2019s Exclusion from AUSSOM Marks a New Chapter in Horn of Africa Dynamics - Financial Afrik<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Headed by Adama Wade and his team of 20 journalists, Kapital Afrik offers strategic and financial information to executives and managers. 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