{"id":473735,"date":"2021-10-03T20:22:41","date_gmt":"2021-10-03T20:22:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kapitalafrik.com\/?p=473735"},"modified":"2021-10-03T20:22:41","modified_gmt":"2021-10-03T20:22:41","slug":"african-currencies-weekly-insight-by-aza","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2021\/10\/03\/african-currencies-weekly-insight-by-aza\/","title":{"rendered":"African currencies weekly insight (by Aza)"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

The Ghanaian Cedi gorges itself on cocoa, the Tanzanian Shilling carried by an innovative president, the Zimbabwe dollar rebels, the Egyptian Pound vaccinated against Covid-19, and the Naira stabilizes, dancing on a barrel of oil … In this column weekly on African currencies, experts from AZA, the largest non-bank currency broker in Africa, with a transaction volume of more than $ 1 billion per year, analyze the evolution of currency fluctuations on the continent.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Zimbabwe cracks down on illegal forex dealers <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zimbabwe\u2019s Vice President Constantino Chiwenga has hit out at the country\u2019s informal currency traders after the Zimbabwe Dollar plunged against the greenback on the parallel market to 162\u2014almost double the official market rate of 86 to the dollar. The fall in the unofficial rate has led to a hike in prices that threatens to set back efforts to revive the economy, with inflation running at above 50% annually in August. Zimbabwe\u2019s central bank has been cracking down on illegal forex dealers and ordered the closure of their bank accounts, a move that mirrors a similar action taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria that has fueled a shortage of dollars in the West African country.Michael Nderitu, \u00a0Chief Risk Officer, AZA\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Naira continues to stabilize after recent turmoil <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Naira has remained relatively steady on the unofficial market this week, trading in a narrow range between 570 and 573 to the dollar. The currency has arrested its recent decline on the parallel market despite thin dollar supply driven by the cessation of FX sales to Nigeria\u2019s bureau de change operators. The calmer backdrop comes as foreign exchange reserves increased in September to $36.1bn from $33.5bn in August, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria\u2019s 30-day moving average snapshot. That increase was likely buoyed by rising oil prices as well as the IMF\u2019s special drawing rights allocation and the country\u2019s $4bn Eurobond deal in September. The CBN also launched its e-Naira last Friday to act as complementary legal tender in Nigeria. We expect the Naira to remain stable over the next seven days amid subdued holiday trading.<\/p>\n

\n

Cocoa loan to help keep Cedi steady <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Cedi was broadly unchanged against the dollar this week, trading at 6.045 compared to 6.042 at last week\u2019s close. Ghana\u2019s central bank on Monday kept its policy rate on hold at 13.5% as ongoing inflationary pressures that could result in a further depreciation of the currency are balanced by expectations of a sustained economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. We expect the Cedi to remain stable against the greenback over the coming week supported by the IMF\u2019s recent special drawing rights allocation and proceeds from a $1.5bn cocoa loan signed last week that will help boost exports.<\/p>\n

\n

Emerging market jitters to weigh on Rand<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Rand weakened against the dollar this week, sliding to 15.17 from 14.94 at last week\u2019s
\nclose as emerging market sentiment soured, driven by a more hawkish tone from the US
\nFederal Reserve and broader concerns about the health of the global economy. That
\ndownbeat mood overshadowed the South African Reserve Bank this week announcing a
\nprimary budget surplus for the first time since 2018. With risk appetite depressed globally,
\nwe expect the Rand will remain under pressure in the near term.<\/p>\n

\n

Egyptian Pound to remain stable amid vaccine drive<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Pound weakened marginally against the dollar this week, trading at 15.71 compared to
\n15.70 at last week\u2019s close. Egypt\u2019s government is intensifying vaccination efforts against Covid-19\u00a0to meet a target of immunising 40 million Egyptians by the end of this year. Egypt is also\u00a0preparing to ramp up local production of China\u2019s Sinovac vaccine in a bid to boost vaccine\u00a0availability in Africa countries, with 80 million doses expected to be produced by the end of\u00a0December. Against this backdrop, we expect the Pound to remain stable in the near term.\u00a0Murega Mungai,\u00a0Trading Desk Manager, AZA.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

Kenyan Shilling tip-toes back from 2021 low <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Shilling traded at its lowest level of the year this week amid increased demand for dollars from importers. The currency was unchanged at a 2021 low of 110.54 on Monday before recovering slightly to 110.50 after Kenya\u2019s central bank on Tuesday held its base lending rate at 7%. Inflation accelerated slightly in August to 6.6% from 6.5% in July on the back of higher fuel and food prices. However, the economy is still projected to grow 6.1% this year and 5.6% in 2022, underpinned by the ongoing deployment of Covid-19 vaccines, relaxation of travel restrictions and the reopening of various sectors. We expect the Shilling to maintain current levels over the coming week, supported by the country\u2019s foreign exchange reserves, which remain adequate at $9.5bn.<\/p>\n

\n

Month-end dollar demand to keep pressure on Ugandan Shilling<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Shilling weakened against the dollar this week, trading at 3540 compared to 3534 at last week\u2019s close, driven lower by month-end dollar demand from importers. Uganda is expected to increase coffee exports to Saudi Arabia to meet growing demand in the Arab nation, where the market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% over the next six years. However, we anticipate further pressure on the Shilling over the next seven days from elevated month-end dollar demand.<\/p>\n

\n

Tanzanian Shilling surges to 16-month high <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Shilling strengthened to its highest level against the dollar in about 16 months, trading at 2309 compared to 2325 at last week\u2019s close, boosted by increased investment inflows during President Samia Hassan\u2019s first six months in office. The Bank of Tanzania said goods exports increased by 5% to $6.5bn in the 12 months to July, driven by gold, manufactured goods and horticulture products. The Tanzania Investment Center said new investment projects registered between March and August increased to 133, totaling almost $3bn. The investments span agriculture, construction, trade, energy, infrastructure, finance, financial institutions, transportation, tourism and services sectors. We expect the Shilling to continue being supported in the near term by continued export and investment inflows. Terry Karanja,\u00a0Treasury Associate, AZA.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

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