{"id":473722,"date":"2021-09-26T22:27:48","date_gmt":"2021-09-26T22:27:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kapitalafrik.com\/?p=473722"},"modified":"2021-09-26T22:27:48","modified_gmt":"2021-09-26T22:27:48","slug":"african-currencies-weekly-insight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.financialafrik.com\/en\/2021\/09\/26\/african-currencies-weekly-insight\/","title":{"rendered":"African currencies weekly insight"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

In this weekly column on African currencies, experts from AZA, the largest non-bank currency broker in Africa, with a transaction volume of more than $ 1 billion per year, analyze the evolution of currencies \u00a0fluctuations on the continent. Here are the main trends for week 39 from October 27 to 03, 2021.<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Moroccan central bank absorbs FX-inflow surge<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n


\n<\/span>Morocco\u2019s central bank\u2014Bank al-Maghrib\u2014this week started buying excess foreign currency from local banks amid a glut of FX inflows from remittances and a recovery in the tourist sector. The central bank said it planned to run auctions this week to absorb the surpluses and \u2018ensure the proper functioning of this market\u2019. The bank will use the cash to further boost its foreign exchange reserves, which had recently been lifted by the IMF\u2019s allocation of $1.2bn under its Special Drawing Rights initiative. By\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Michael <\/span><\/span>Nderitu\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Chief Risk Officer, AZA.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Naira poised to recover from record low<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/span>
\nThe Naira halted its recent depreciation against the dollar after the Nigerian central bank last Friday shut down a key website that publishes daily updates on the currency\u2019s unofficial market rate. Against expectations, the Naira has remained steady at 570 since central bank Governor Godwin <\/span><\/span>Emefiele<\/span><\/span> accused the <\/span><\/span>abokiFX<\/span><\/span>platform of manipulating prices and undermining the economy. In a separate bid to support the Naira, <\/span><\/span>Emefiele<\/span><\/span> said the bank will now approve legitimate FX demand that exceeds the current $5,000 transaction cap for individuals. Nigeria this week also raised $4bn through a Eurobond sale\u2014$1bn more than initially planned. The three-tranche deal will help finance projects outlined in the Nigerian 2021 Appropriation Act, as well as boost the country\u2019s FX reserves. Against that backdrop, we expect the Naira to appreciate gradually on the parallel market over the next seven days.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n

Cedi outlook stable as Ghana seeks to lure foreign investment<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>The Cedi was little changed against the dollar this week, trading at 6.042 compared to 6.04 at last Friday\u2019s close. <\/span><\/span>Also<\/span><\/span> at the end of last week, Ghana\u2019s President Nana Addo <\/span><\/span>Dankwa<\/span><\/span> Akufo-Addo said he had directed ministers to maintain a \u2018constructive dialogue\u2019 between government and the private sector in order to attract more FDI inflows into the country, which would boost supply of the greenback. Meantime, the Bank of Ghana sold $50m into the market at this week\u2019s FX auction, $25m lower than the previous auction earlier in September. We expect dollar supply to offset demand, keeping the Cedi stable over the coming week.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Rand faces renewed pressure amid debt challenges<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>The Rand was broadly flat against the dollar this week, trading at 14.721 compared to 14.723 at last week\u2019s close. The currency was given a boost after China\u2019s troubled property developer Evergrande Group pledged to pay an upcoming bond coupon, improving appetite for emerging market assets. That helped the Rand recover, having earlier weakened to a low of 14.88 to the dollar after Fitch Ratings said South Africa would continue to face challenges as it seeks to <\/span><\/span>stabilise<\/span><\/span> its debt. In light of this, we expect the currency to come under renewed pressure over the next seven days.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Agricultural exports to keep Egyptian Pound steady<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>The Pound was unchanged against the dollar this week, trading at 15.71 after the Central Bank of Egypt last week held its benchmark deposit rate at 8.25% for the seventh monetary policy meeting in a row. The bank also maintained its overnight lending rate at 9.25% and its discount rate at 8.75%. We expect the Pound to remain stable this week, supported by export inflows from the agricultural sector, particularly oranges and frozen strawberries. By\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Murega<\/span><\/span> Mungai,\u00a0<\/span><\/span>Trading Desk Manager, AZA.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Kenyan Shilling on track for 2021 low<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>The Shilling weakened to a nine-month low against the dollar, trading between 110.25 and 110.55 due to increased dollar demand from importers. Inflation also nudged higher\u2014climbing to 6.57% in August from 6.55% in July\u2014with the price of goods including electricity and fuel increasing, exacerbated by a rise in global crude oil prices. Meantime, the Central Bank of Kenya sold KES13.1bn at its weekly treasury bills auction, slightly more than half of the KES24bn it had offered investors. The country\u2019s FX reserves remain adequate at $9.6bn, enough for 5.88 months of import cover. We expect the rising cost of goods to maintain the pressure on the Shilling over the coming week.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n


\nUgandan Shilling set for further weakness<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>The Shilling depreciated to 3537\/3557 against the dollar this week from 3525\/3535 at last week\u2019s close as importer demand for the greenback outpaced supply from remittances and investors. Meantime, Uganda received 1.67 million doses of Pfizer\u2019s Covid-19 vaccine, which it plans to start offering from next week. The country does not plan to fully reopen its economy until half of its 44 million population are vaccinated, having so far only completed 1.8 million jabs. Given that backdrop, and as month-end approaches, we expect the Shilling to weaken further in the next seven days.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
\n


\nGold exports to keep Tanzanian Shilling stable<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The Shilling was unchanged this week at 2319 to the dollar, shrugging off news last Friday that Tanzania cut its growth forecast for this year while anticipating a larger budget deficit than previously expected. Finance Minister Mwigulu Nchemba and Bank of Tanzania Governor Florens Luoga wrote in a letter to the IMF that they expect the country to grow by 4% this year, down from an estimated 5.6% in June. Tanzania\u2019s fiscal deficit is also expected to widen to 3.9% of GDP, up from a previous estimate of 1.8%, the letter said. However, we expect a stable Shilling in the coming week as dollar demand from importers in the manufacturing sector is matched by inflows from investors and gold exports.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Terry Karanja<\/span><\/span>
\n<\/span><\/span>Treasury Associate, A<\/span><\/span>ZA<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Moroccan central bank<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":527180,"featured_media":420288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"aside","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"translated_post_url_fr":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[12591,11996,12046],"tags":[965,3310,2965],"class_list":{"0":"post-473722","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-aside","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-feature","8":"category-finance-en","9":"category-leaders-en","10":"tag-cedi","11":"tag-naira","12":"tag-rand","13":"post_format-post-format-aside","14":"pmpro-has-access"},"yoast_head":"\nAfrican currencies weekly insight - Financial Afrik<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Headed by Adama Wade and his team of 20 journalists, Kapital Afrik offers strategic and financial information to executives and managers. 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